The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Tuesday issued a preliminary analysis of commercial high-resolution satellite imagery of the conflict zone in northern Sri Lanka that shows craters from the use of heavy weapons and the removal of thousands of likely structures used by internally displaced persons (IDPs) between May 6 and May 10.
May 6 imagery analysis reported on possible evidence of shelling, in the form of likely shell impact craters and adjacent destroyed structures. These possible shell impact craters are found throughout the conflict zone, in close proximity to and intermingling with IDP shelters and other structures. The report pointed out that circular, crater-like features were not present in significant numbers prior to the May 6, 2009 imagery.
The report further said evidence of destroyed structures is commonplace and unambiguous in the May 6 imagery. Specifically, dozens of structures have clearly been destroyed, with remains of the structure and debris visible (Figure Three). In some cases, interior walls of the structure are visible, though not rooftops, a likely indication that the structure was partially or completely burned.
Analysis of the May 10 imagery provided some evidence of the events of May 9-10 where reports said about significant use of artillery or other heavy weapons on the IDP population in the conflict zone, as reflected in UN and other statements.
The report said what caused the IDP structures to be removed between May 6 and May 10 is uncertain based on the imagery, though it is certainly unlikely that the IDPs would have moved en masse, and so completely without a compelling reason, such as shelling. According to the report, some new possible shell craters appear in the conflict zone on the May 10 image which were not present on the May 6 image. It said in initial analysis found at least 19, primarily in the immediate area of the removed IDP structures.
Sri Lankan government claims that its armed forces are no longer using heavy weapons in the densely populated conflict area in northern Sri Lanka.
Imagery from the satellites analyzed by AAAS includes WorldView scenes collected at approximately 11AM local time on May 6 and May 10, 2009, as well as an earlier scene collected from the QuickBird satellite on May 9, 2005 (prior to the current period of conflict).
An additional scene from the GeoEye satellite Ikonos, acquired on March 23, 2009, is also available and was used to verify pre-conflict conditions in the CZ. For all scenes, the area identified as the Conflict Zone by the UN as of May 10, 2009 (see Figure One) was reviewed to determine possible evidence of shelling and other heavy weapons fire, as well as movements and conditions of IDPs, especially as indicated on May 10.
May 6 Imagery Analysis
Results for the May 6 image analysis correlate to reporting from news sources for the region. The May 6 image was compared to the image from May 2005, on GoogleEarth, and the March 2009 Ikonos image to denote changes possibly occurring during the period of conflict. AAAS analysts conducted a visual change inspection of the various images, identifying areas of significant change and specific modes of change.
When comparing the 2009 and 2005 images, possible evidence of shelling, in the form of likely shell impact craters and adjacent destroyed structures, are in evidence. These possible shell impact craters are found throughout the conflict zone, in close proximity to and intermingling with IDP shelters and other structures (see Figure Two). However, it is of course difficult to precisely indicate whether these are craters from shelling, or due to other natural or anthropogenic drivers. What is certain is that these circular, crater-like features were not present in significant numbers prior to the May 6, 2009 imagery. Evidence of destroyed structures is commonplace and unambiguous in the May 6 imagery. Specifically, dozens of structures have clearly been destroyed, with remains of the structure and debris visible (Figure Three). In some cases, interior walls of the structure are visible, though not rooftops, a likely indication that the structure was partially or completely burned (see Figure Four).
May 10 Imagery Analysis
Analysis of the May 10 imagery sought to provide some evidence of the events of May 9-10, when reports indicated significant use of artillery or other heavy weapons on the IDP population in the CZ, as reflected in UN and other statements. The salient feature of the May 10 image, when compared to the May 6 image, is the obvious removal of thousands of likely IDP structures from the central part of the CZ (see red outlines, Figure Five). While some new areas of IDP structures did appear in the same time period (see yellow outlines, Figure Five), their quantity is not enough to compensate for the sheer number of removed IDP structures.
What caused the IDP structures to be removed between May 6 and May 10 is uncertain based on the imagery, though it is certainly unlikely that the IDPs would have moved en masse, and so completely without a compelling reason.
It is also notable how complete the removal of IDP structures appears, in that some debris and evidence of the structures remains, but overall the area has been swept relatively clean (see Figure Six). This is less indicative of the entire area being razed by shelling, though it could correspond with an emigration from those specific areas by the IDPs due to some outside driver, such as shelling.
In addition, some new possible shell craters do appear in the CZ on the May 10 image which were not present on the May 6 image. An initial analysis found at least 19, primarily in the immediate area of the removed IDP structures. These are shown in Figure Seven.
Note that, as stated, crater analysis is problematic, and an additional factor is the reported use of airburst munitions, which would of course not leave pronounced craters.
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Material Courtesy: American Association for the Advancement of Science Science and Human Rights Program, AAASHRP,USA.
